In mid-August I wrote a post about wagering an online bet that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election. It was a hedge against one of the worst possible outcomes for humanity.
Two months have passed since that post. Bodog’s odds for the presidential race have virtually been unchanged since then. Nate Silver’s forecast actually had Clinton up four additional points back then compared to now (even despite this weekend’s gong show).
Despite of all this, I’m now having a hard time convincing myself that this bet would have any chance of winning. Yes, I understand that Nate Silver is literally saying I have about a 17% chance of winning it. On the other hand, the Trump campaign seems in terrible shape right now. Romney was doing much better at this time back in 2012 and he still got his ass kicked. How could Trump do any better than that?
At the same time though, there is a tiny voice in my head that reminds me not to underestimate the collective stupidity of American voters. These are the same people who installed George W. Bush in the White House for eight horrendous years. So despite all the polling and all the doom and gloom analysis from all the political pundits, I feel the American people can never be ruled out. It’s so possible for them to snatch disaster from the jaws of sensibility. Let us not dismiss the voting power of the racist, the bigoted, the uneducated, and the uninformed. They could change the history of human civilization.
The question of where on the betting slip that $100 should go still goes unanswered.