I imagine that across the world people are preparing contingency plans in case of a Trump victory in the American presidential election in November. These plans may originate from the level of individual governments down to individual citizens.
Both myself and a friend of mine are incredibly afraid of what a Trump victory could cause on many different fronts. One of those fronts is the reaction from the global financial markets. I just can’t see investors being extremely confident or even joyful at a Trump White House. It’s my belief that such an outcome would trigger an immediate and disruptive reaction from worldwide markets. As an example, I would look at what happened to the markets in London right after the Brexit results. Even months afterwards, many of the losses have not been regained.
My friend and I are poised to liquidate all our holdings in stocks, mutual funds, and anything that could be subject to volatility in the event of a Trump victory. This is not an easy decision to make. I’m still not sure if I want to go all in on this, especially with any holdings that in the red right now. On the other hand, I do not want to be subject to a wild ride come post-election.
The other thing to consider is how likely is a Trump victory? I trust Nate Silver’s forecasts and currently, Clinton has a greater chance at victory. Does that mean Clinton will win for sure? No way. I imagine if Clinton were to win, the markets would receive an immediate boost, as fears are allayed. Sure I’d want in on that but you know what, I’d be ok if I missed out if that meant a Trump defeat.
If I’m to do this, I have to move quickly or November will sneak up on me without warning.