As many of you recall, I sometimes partake in online betting. So far, I’ve only bet on ice hockey games featuring the local professional team, the Vancouver Canucks. I exclusively bet again the Canucks. In this manner, if they lose, the sting of defeat is more than soothed by winning money. If they win, then a small amount of money is an acceptable price to pay to see them advance. If you’ve followed the Canucks in recent years, you’ll then recognize I’ve won a lot of money off their performances then.
On the weekend, the same kind of thinking got me to look up if there was online betting for politics, in particular the Canadian federal election. Indeed, there is and online betting site Bodog has several propositions relating to the election. My intention was to prepare for the event that Stephen Harper would be re-elected. If such a horrible outcome would become reality, at least I could make some cash off that. On the weekend, the odds were as follows: Harper -125, Trudeau +125, Mulcair +800. To read these odds, first take a look at the sign. A positive sign means that, if you bet $100, you’ll win your money back plus that amount. So for example, if you bet $100 on Mulcair and he becomes PM, you win $800. Positive numbers are considered riskier bets. A negative sign means, that’s how much money you’d have to put down to just win $100. So a -125 means you’d have to bet $125 just to win $100. Negative numbers are an oddsmaker’s way of saying they think this the more likely outcome.
I was going to put down $200 on Harper as Bodog were indicating he’d be the most likely to win the election. Bodog of course doesn’t do their own polling, they rely on the news, external polls, and the experience of their oddsmakers to come up with the odds. Then the weekend ended and the latest set of polls started to come out. The Liberals started to pull away from the Cons and the NDP. These are now the odds as of Friday morning:
The odds have swung heavily towards Trudeau at -250. You’d have to wager a hefty $250 on Trudeau just to win a measly $100. Harper now goes into the positive as the oddsmakers see his chances dwindle. Mulcair is now even more out of the race. A $100 bet on him would yield an amazing $1500 if he managed a miracle.
I’m no longer certain if I want to bet on Harper anymore. Now I get that polls can and often are inaccurate. Geez, if I were to use the same thinking for the last provincial election in B.C., I’d be hesitant to bet on Crusty Clark because of polling, yet she pulled it off. Part of me thinks I should put $100 on Harper anyways, just so I don’t tempt fate. In any case, the odds might have changed in the hours since I wrote this. Check them yourself right here.
Ok, so while I was on the Bodog site, I also found they do bets involving entertainment. They also have a whole set of propositions on Star Wars: Episode VII. The most interesting bet to me is: “May the Force be with you” to be said.
The odds for this at the time of writing are -150, meaning I’d have to wager $150 to win $100. This is a sure thing is it not? Even the odds say so! That line has been said in every single Star Wars film, all six of them. Unfortunately, there has been some variation in the line in some of the movies. In some cases, it’s “May the Force be with us”. Does that count technically? I’d have to check with Bodog.
Still, I feel like J.J. Abrams would not miss an opportunity to not use that line in his first and possibly last involvement in a Star Wars movie. He’s a geek like me and if he were to use the line, it would be the purest form of it, not a variation. It is why I’m thinking of putting down a cool $1000 on this bet. Yes, you read that right, I am that stupid. A $1000 wager would net me a handsome sum of $667. Not bad eh? You can see more of those Star Wars bets right here. Anyone fancy a wager on a best picture Oscar win?
I think you better take those Harper odds so as not to jinx yourself.