The US presidential election is just days away now. It’s difficult to get a big picture view of what voters are thinking if you go by single polls run by just one organization. The most misleading polls are the ones that have President Obama and Romney in a “dead heat”. That completely ignores the electoral college system that’s in place in the US.
The best place to see what might happen on election day is Nate Silver‘s blog. Widely regarded as the best and most accurate political statistician in the US, Silver honed his work with numbers and predictions in baseball. Silver takes data from many different polls and sources, and analyzes them. As of this writing, Silver predicts that there is over an 80% chance that President Obama will win the election. He also predicts President Obama will most likely win just over 303 electoral votes surpassing the 270 required to win the election. Of course, this is just a prediction. Even Silver warns that this will be a close election and that reality is most unpredictable at times.
I am most superstitious and I’m wary of voter suppression tactics that are almost assured to be employed by the Republican party. All of this prevents me from having even an ounce of optimism for next Tuesday. May that day bring good fortune to the world.
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Deadspin has a great piece about Nate Silver’s history with baseball and the right wing’s attempts to discredit him this election period.